The Bank of Japan announced at the monetary policy conference that it continued to maintain super loose monetary policy and maintained long -term interest rate fluctuations at 0.5%. Affected by the Bank of Japan's maintenance of super loose monetary policy, the foreign exchange market's devaluation was expected to increase.The exchange rate once reached 141 to 1, and in the more critical outlook report, the core inflation forecast for the whole year was reduced, and after the 2024 decreased from 2.5%to 1.7%, but the 2025 increased to 1.8%.As a result, the market has no doubt about whether the price target can return to the central bank's goal. In fact, from the forecast of the outlook report, the Bank of Japan has no confidence in whether the Bank of Japan's 2%price target can achieve.Although it can be confirmed that rising prices have led to an increase in wages since last year, whether it will cause a virtuous cycle of wages and prices to be observed.
Around the 2%price target, it can be said that the Bank of Japan is currently standing at the crossroads.In terms of prospects, there is no way out. On the one hand, with the dust of the spring fight this year, the maximum salary increase in 26 years has indicated that the increase in wages next year will increase.The realization of price goals can be foreseeable, because once this road is clear, the Bank of Japan will be very likely to change the monetary policy and move towards the "currency tightening" or "normalization" mentioned in the early stages of Shiuda.
On the other hand, the price of commodity prices that continues to rise continuously, which will inevitably affect the salary situation of next year to next year.To be flexible into the "medium and long term" goal.In this case, maintaining the loosering of monetary policy is inevitable, because long -term currency easing is greater than disadvantages to Japan. While not adjusting the monetary policy, it can also reduce side effects.The direction of the currency loose frame coincides.
Based on this, from the current perspective, the Bank of Japan will still be difficult to achieve 2%of the price target in the short term. Therefore, judging the path that the Bank of Japan may choose above, the second road may be the main solution for Japan.EssenceHowever, at the level of price rising higher than the target level, in the Spring Dou, the management of major Japanese companies and the trade union held a cross -industry salary negotiation, how to achieve salary increase and the price of price of 2%will also be included in the scope of discussion.
The so -called Spring Dou is the wage negotiations of cross -industry in March each year, laying the tone for the salary of employees in the new fiscal year.In the eyes of many people in the industry, this year's salary negotiations called "Spring Dou" by the Japanese people will appear particularly critical.Because the result of this year's "Spring Dou" not only appeared in the greatest salary increase in history, but also on the time when the Bank of Japan was changed, it had a huge impact on the normalization of the Bank of Japan's currency.The rise in stable wages is essential for revitalizing domestic demand in Japan and maintaining inflation near 2%.
鉴于日本央行眼下正处于政策转变的关键窗口期，此次“春斗”的结果除了将对日本工人本身产生直接影响外，对债券、股票也较为关键，因为加薪幅度会影响日本通胀，进而Affects the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the trend of the stock and bond market.The innovation high and the lower exchange rate of the market stock market are the most authentic portrayal. Therefore, in the first half of the year's economic, policy, and price movement evaluation policies, the estimated price estimation of the prospects has shown that the Central Bank of Japan has re -positioned the price goal of price targetsFor the goal of the medium and long term, the probability of reducing side effects as a short term while taking the short -term non -adjustment of monetary policy, such as adjusting or. It will also appear after the second half of next year.
In summary, shortly after Shitian and men as the President of the Bank of Japan, the market heated that the Bank of Japan will end its bond yield control policy.It is expected that the foundation for long -term inflation in Japan will undoubtedly provide a more flexible space for the policy of the Bank of Japan.In the short term, the uncertainty of the sustainability of wages will still promote the continuous debate of the Bank of Japan in terms of reduction of stimulus measures.
When returning to the market, it is expected that in the June interest rate meeting, the Bank of Japan will still firmly maintain a loose position.In this context, it is critical to get rid of shrinkage spirals and enter the new economic model.With the inflowing and valuation of foreign capital, and Japanese companies are indeed capable of using excess cash management, the enthusiasm of foreign investment in Japanese stocks may continue, and the positive feedback formed at the moment will push the stock market to continue to rise.In addition, although the Japanese yen has a significant short -term down -ups under the extremely loose monetary policy factors in front, the negative correlation of the stock exchange is actually a manifestation of the yen "hedging".In the future, when the global risk appetite falls and the rights market will be frustrated, the yen exchange rate will inevitably appreciate significantly.
