After a large -scale tightening monetary policy, the inflation levels of major developed economies such as the United States and the euro zone have been significantly reduced since the beginning of this year.But there is a developed economy -British exception.In the case of the Fed's suspension of interest rate hikes, the British Central Bank continued to be firm on the road to interest rate hikes.At the Monetary Policy Conference in June, the Central Bank of the United Kingdom raised 50 basis points to raise interest rates, raising interest rates from 4.50%to 5.00%. This is the 13th interest rate hikes of the Bank of England, the highest level since September 2008.At the annual forum held by the European Central Bank at the end of June, the President of the British Bank of the United Kingdom Andrew Bailey said that the British Bank's interest rate hike was a response to the UK's unexpected continuous inflation.
"In our opinion, long -term data, especially the labor market data, shows that British inflation is in obvious continuous signs. These signs make us must take very strong measures." Bailey said that British core inflation is more sticky.EssenceThe effect of 50 basis points in one -time interest rate hikes will be better than the 25 -basis point of interest rate hikes twice in a row.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the British Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been at a high level of 8.7%for two consecutive months.The British CPI in April rose 8.7%year -on -year, and the year -on -year growth rate of CPI remained at 8.7%year -on -year, which was the same as the increase in April.At the same time, the core CPI, including energy, food, alcohol and tobacco in April, rose 6.8%year -on -year, higher than 6.2%in March.The core CPI in the UK rose 7.1%year -on -year, higher than 6.8%in April, and continued to rise, reaching a new high since March 1992.
In addition, according to data from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the overall inflation rate of the Seven Kingdoms Group decreased from 5.4%in April to 4.6%in May, reaching the lowest level since September 2021.Except for Britain, the overall inflation rate of other countries in the Seven Groups has declined.The high inflation rate in the UK is because the core inflation rate continues to rise.The lowest inflation rate in the Seventh Kingdom Group was Japan and Canada, both of which were less than 3.5%.Food and energy inflation are still the main factor of the overall inflation of Italy, and core inflation is the main inflation driving factor in France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
What causes Britain's level of inflation?The Bank of China Research Institute analyzed that the higher energy price and short labor shortage are the main reasons for the high inflation rate in the UK.First of all, the impact of rising energy prices on British inflation has not faded.Russia is an important energy supplier in European countries. After the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine, Western economies imposed sanctions on Russia, leading to a significant increase in energy prices in Britain and the euro zone.At the same time, the time lags for the launch of the energy price subsidy plan for Britain, and the subsidy is less than that of some euro zones. To a certain extent, it has increased the burden on residents' life and increased the stubbornness of inflation.Secondly, the tightening of the labor market has continued to increase the core inflation rate of Britain.At present, Britain is facing serious and lasting labor shortages.Brexit has reduced the opportunities for EU residents to work in the UK. In addition, the British existence of the population structure aging, waiting for the long -term medical treatment cycle, etc. Some labor force withdrew from the labor market due to age or long -term diseases.Insufficient labor forces forced British companies to increase wage growth.
"At present, British inflation has fallen to its central bank's target level during the year. At present, international energy prices have continued to fall, British labor supply has improved. In the first quarter, labor power increased by nearly 460,000 people, which gradually relieved the labor market tension. However,, butDue to a certain degree of viscosity and the characteristics of prone to increase, the impact of the above factors on British inflation will be slowly released.The central bank said that the effect of interest rate hikes is expected to be fully transmitted to the real economy within two years.
In the face of highly difficult to fall, compared to other developed economies, the Bank of England has greater motivation to continue to raise interest rates.In the future, the British Central Bank is more likely to continue to raise interest rates.According to the Bank of China Research Institute, the British inflation data shows that the Bank of England may not stop the pace of interest rate hikes, and the market predicts that British policy interest rates will reach about 5.50%by the end of 2023.
