On July 3rd, the US dollar index (102.9107, -0.0130, -0.01%) was narrowed, and the current trading was near 102.96.上周五美元指数冲高回落，盘中一度创近两周半高点至103.55附近，但PCE等数据出炉后，美元指数大幅走弱，并回吐了上周四的全部涨幅，因为数据显示The slowdown in the growth rate of inflation in the United States and the cooling of American consumer expenditure have caused people to have some doubts about the potential radicals of Fed's confrontation with inflation.
According to data from the US Department of Commerce last Friday, consumer expenditure increased by 0.1%month -on -month, and the April data correction increased by 0.6%, and the previous value increased by 0.8%.Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.1%in May after April rose by 0.4%in April.In the 12 months of May, the PCE price index rose 3.8%, which was the smallest year -on -year increase since April 2021, and April increased by 4.3%year -on -year.
After the data was announced, the yields of US Treasury bonds also fell.But the PCE indicator is still much higher than the Fed's 2%inflation target.
The US dollar index fell 0.41%to 102.92 last Friday, and the week was close to the closure, an increase of about 0.05%.
Earlier last week, the US dollar index continued to rebound. Therefore, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and stable economic data have enhanced the market's expectations of the Fed will raise interest rates twice this year, and at the same time reduced the expectations of raising interest rates before the end of the year.
According to the FedWatch tools of the CME, after the PCE data in the United States was announced in May, the possibility of raising interest rates at the Fed in July was slightly decreased. At present, the market may be 84.3%.Four 89.3%.
Chicago Fed Chairman Gusby said that he and his colleagues will carefully analyze the "large amount of data" before the Fed of the Federal Reserve's conference from now to the end of July to evaluate whether the cost of borrowing is needed to reduce inflation.
The US dollar index rose by 0.32%in the second quarter, ending the trend of previous quarter line continuity.In the first half of the year, the US dollar index fell 0.5%.The US dollar against the yen (144.57, 0.3100, 0.21%) fell 0.31%last Friday, and fell from the height of more than seven months to close at 144.29, breaking the seven -day rising trend.On Friday, the US dollar rose to the 150 mark against the yen and touched the maximum of 145.07, causing oral intervention in the Japanese authorities.
