Recently, the "US dollar's exchange rate for the RMB has been strong" has become more and more concerned about the public.Originally, the Fed had suspended interest rates in June, and the strength of the US dollar to major global currencies had come to an end. People expect the US dollar to come to an end.But recently, the US dollar has still risen strongly against the RMB. Everyone is looking for the reasons for the weakening of the RMB, discussing their future trends, and pondering how to deal with personal asset allocation.
1. Why is the RMB weakened recently?
In fact, in recent years, China's goods and services have been surplus (exports are greater than imports). According to data from the State Foreign Exchange Administration, China's frequent account surplus in 2022 is 401.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 14%over 2021.Among them, cargo trade surplus expanded: According to the statistics of international revenue and expenditure, in 2022, the export of goods trade exports was 3346.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 4%over the previous year; imports were 267.82 billion US dollars, an increase of 1%; the surplus was 66.86 billion US dollars, an increase of 19%; service trade; service tradeThe deficit narrowed. In 2022, the service trade revenue was 369 billion US dollars, an increase of 9%over the previous year; the expenditure was 461.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 5%; the deficit was 92.3 billion US dollars, a decrease of 9%.
From the perspective of official data, the net difference in direct investment in China has fallen year by year to almost zero last year, and securities investment shows a significant deficit.In 2022, the securities investment deficit expanded significantly to $ 2811 billion.The overall capital project is obviously out. The overall income of overseas investment in China is not eased, manifested as the weakening of the demand for the renminbi.The imbalance of supply and demand for RMB is the root cause of the recent weak trend.
2. Will the exchange rate of the renminbi weaken for a long time?
1. The long -term exchange rate level is determined by "purchasing power parity".
Judging from the latest economic data of this year, China's inflation is not a problem.On the other hand, the inflation of Meijia has maintained a low -level developed country in the past 20 years. In recent years, the situation has changed significantly in recent years.Whether it is a civilian coffee breakfast, or the supermarket's meat, eggs, milk, fruits, and vegetables, the price has increased significantly. The current price increases by about 40%compared with 2019.
Therefore, from this point of view, the renminbi is really the foundation of long -term depreciation.
2. The exchange rate level in the medium term is determined by the non -risk yield of local currency.
In Europe and the United States, inflation pressure is large, and countries continue to raise interest rates to further tighten monetary policy.As the management authorities continue to guide China's interest rate level, the current RMB risk -free yield in China is about 2%, but the Fed's latest interest rate level has exceeded 5%. That is to sayThere were obvious spreads.The rise in spreads will attract funds to return to the United States, increasing the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB to the US dollar.
On the other hand, in the past ten years, China's M2 growth rate has been the fastest among the world's major economies. In the past few years, it relied on a large amount of currency to "steadily grow", "debt replacement", "stock market dragging market", and"The price increase in the housing market" ... and so on, use the monetary policy to the extreme.In this way, the renminbi must face long -term depreciation pressure.
3. The short -term trend of the exchange rate depends on the attitude of the management authorities.
According to data on June 7, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China showed that as of the end of May 2023, the scale of Chinese foreign exchange reserves of China was US $ 3176.5 billion, and the size of the offshore RMB CNH, which needs to be market -oriented to regulate the exchange rate,Around 100 million), it is easy to control the level of exchange rate.The huge existing RMB CNY in the shore is not a market -oriented free exchange, and the pricing of the Foreign Exchange Administration is effortless.
There are indeed a lot of benefits for the domestic economy of the RMB to the Chinese economy: alleviating the pressure of asset bubbles in China, because China's domestic assets are valued at US dollars, which is conducive to the dilution of real estate bubbles in China, which is conducive to attracting international investmentPersonal investment; the depreciation of the RMB is conducive to reducing the price of the US dollar valuation products, and to drive the economy by promoting the export; it is also conducive to directly improving the profits of export companies ...
3. How should investors deal with?
The weakening of the local currency affects the confidence of domestic and overseas investors in China, and the Chinese stock market continues to weaken, which shows the importance of global asset allocation.
For ordinary citizens, the depreciation of the local currency shows that its international purchasing power has declined, and holding some foreign currency assets in various legal ways can heed this risk.At the same time, related investment wealth management products with overseas investment will increase the potential for returning due to the weakening of local currency.
As far as domestic investors in China are concerned, overseas assets can be allocated by holding different QDII funds to achieve the purpose of decentralized risks and improving returns.
From the perspective of asset allocation, in the long run, participating in overseas investment as part of the overall asset allocation in different ways can not only achieve the purpose of decentralizing the risk of fluctuations in the domestic single market exchange rate and asset price fluctuations, but also conduciveBreadth, explore investment opportunities such as different markets and different assets through global investment to enhance overall investment returns.
