After a strong rebound in the fall of 2022, the euro against the US dollar exchange rate continued the rise in the first half of 2023. At the same time, the euro against the RMB had a greater appreciation.
After a strong rebound in the fall of 2022, the euro against the US dollar exchange rate continued the rise in the first half of 2023. At the same time, the euro against the RMB had a greater appreciation.Most institutions, including the European Central Bank, have further raised the expectations of the euro/USD price in the second half of the year. However, the core inflation of the European and American core is still high, the prospects for economic growth, and the stable financial system faces huge challenges, increasing the two major central bank's tightening monetary policy policyUncertainty.
In the first half of this year, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was oscillation. After touching 1.1095 on April 26, several efforts failed to break through the 1.1100 mark several times.As of June 30, the euro against the US dollar increased by about 1.9%over the end of the previous year, which was much higher than the decline (about 0.6%) of the six major currency index DXY in the same period.It can be said that the euro is one of the most powerful non -American currencies in the first half of the year.
Although the economic prospects of the euro zone are dim, due to long -term inflation expectations are still not optimistic, the European Central Bank insists on currency tightening operations (four consecutive interest rate hikes in the first half of the year), and the Fed has suspended interest rates in June.In addition, investors have entered the economic recession for the United States in the second half of the year, and then the Fed will pricing interest rate cuts in advance.These have greatly supported the euro to strengthen the US dollar.
The European Central Bank predicts that by the end of 2025, the wages of the euro zone will reach 14%.In the first quarter of this year, the labor cost of the region increased by 5.0%year -on -year.
In the middle of the year, most investment banks further raised the expectations of the euro against the US dollar in the second half of the year.The main reason is that the European Central Bank's interest rate hike operation will be late than the end of the Fed.
The core inflation rate in the United States announced on June 30 was only slightly lower than expected to push the euro/USD from 1.0850 to 1.0932 within two hours.In a short period of time, the euro/dollar was suppressed from 1.0941 to 1.0860.
In the first half of 2023, the exchange rate of the euro against the RMB continued to appreciate significantly.According to the reference exchange rate released by the European Central Bank, the euro/RMB hit a new high of nearly two and a half years on June 28.As of June 30, Europe appreciated 7.34%from the end of the previous year.This scale greatly exceeded the appreciation of the US dollar against the RMB (nearly 5%) during the same period.
Investment Banks generally expect that whether it is the euro against RMB or the US dollar against the RMB in the second half of the year.Business Bank of Germany believes that the renminbi will still maintain weakness in the short term. It is expected that the Fed will start to reduce a critical interest rate from early 2024. The US dollar exchange rate will remain above 7.10 in the third quarter, and then gradually falls below the key 1: 7.The specific prediction is as follows:
Some economists have said that the differences in monetary policy may lead to the target level of the US dollar/RMB short -term challenge 1: 7.30. The possibility of further testing 7.40 is still low, and the depreciation of the RMB is still controllable.Unidirectional operation.The agency expects the RMB exchange rate to rise in the third quarter.
