Since the beginning of 2023, before the Fed ’s interest rate hike cycle ended, the US residential real estate market has been significantly recovered, and the growth rate of new houses has risen, sales and construction have risen, and the growth rate of house prices has been negatively transferred from the previous month.As the most sensitive department, why is the US real estate "desensitization" on interest rates?
In March 2022, the Fed began to raise interest rates. In the process of continuously rising the interest rate center, US real estate continued to recover.As of March, the US FHFA, the US House Price Index, and the first 20 cities have increased the growth rates from the previous month.
Real estate is a typical interest rate sensitivity department, and the advance "reversal" in the upsurge of interest rates is not common.
In terms of region, the scope of real estate restoration in this round is wider, and the sales growth rate of various regions has improved.In the US real estate sales market, the southern region accounts for about 45%, 12%in the northeast, 23%in the central and western regions, and 19%in the West Coast.The growth rate of house sales in the southern region rose from-37%in January to May-17%, and the growth rate of new house sales rose to 110%in May.Sales in the western region are slightly slow, but house sales have also risen from -46%in November last year to -25%.
After the "big crisis", the problem of insufficient housing supply in the United States continued to exist, and the contradictions between supply and demand accumulated.Since the financial crisis, the growth rate of real estate capital expenditure in the United States has been relatively low. The center of construction expenditure is significantly lower than before the crisis, and real estate investment has continued to decline in the proportion of GDP.
High interest rates will not only suppress real estate demand, but also shrink the supply.After the impact of the big popularity, the tight monetary policy has exacerbated the problem of supply shortage of second -hand housing.During the epidemic, the Fed implemented a zero interest rate policy. A large number of people bought houses with lower mortgage loan interest rates. From the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2022, the US net increased by 2.2 million new homeowners, and the proportion of their own housing increased by 0.1.A percentage point, reaching 65.4%.In the process of the Fed's rapid interest rate hike, the 15 -year and 30 -year mortgage interest rate rose to more than 6%in September 2022. Among them, the 30 -year interest rate exceeded 7%at the end of October 2022.Faced with high interest rates, the owners of the house showed obvious "sale" behavior, so the number of new second -hand housing has fallen rapidly since this round of interest rate hikes.The supply in shortness is an important reason for the recovery of real estate.
The currency tightening has not significantly impacted the labor market, the growth rate of wages is still high, the income ratio of housing prices has decreased, and the burden of residential housing has not declined.Affected by the shortage of labor supply, after the start of the interest rate hike cycle, the year -on -year growth rate of US residents' disposable income continued to rise, and by May 2023, it has risen to 4%.However, the growth rate of house prices tended to fall, and house prices in the first 20 cities had fallen to -1.7%year-on-year.Therefore, the housing has become cheaper than income.New house price revenue decreased from 10.9 in the third quarter of 2022 to 8.6, while second -hand housing was reduced from 9.2 to 8.3.
In the short term, the insufficient supply and the willingness to buy a house for residents still have the motivation to repair real estate.U.S. real estate inventory is still at a historic low. At present, the willingness to buy a house for American residents can still be supported.In the middle and long term, the continuous tightening of the Fed will further pressure the demand side, and the restoration of US real estate will still face the test.Inflation pressure may still rise further, and the policy interest rates at the end of 2023 may be higher.
